Last year at this time, we were well into a cold and snowy pattern with most days of the month having snow. This year, obviously, is much different. Even though we're running close to what we picked up last year at this time, our snow this year has come primarily from two storms. And we have very little snow in the forecast over the next 7 days. So what's going on?

Well, La Nina is basically running its course and playing out like a "typical" La Nina.  But some changes are starting to occur. First of all, it's much colder now than it was two weeks ago. And for the most part, temperatures will stay close to average over the next two weeks. There will be some mild days, but also a few colder-than-average ones as well. This week, for example, it was below average yesterday and today. Thursday will be above average with highs around 50! But we'll cool off for the weekend.

And the other change that is starting to occur is the storm track. The next storm will pass to our west, allowing mild air to stream northward on Thursday. The next storm (next Tuesday) is a bit of a tossup at this point, with some models taking the storm just to our west, and others just to our south. If it goes to our south, we'll see more wintry precipitation.

But it looks like we should start seeing storms track to our south and east later this month and into January as a bigger push of cold air makes its way southward out of Canada. If that does not happen, our winter forecast will bust and January will turn out warmer and wetter than expected (making some of you happy)!

So on a forecast standpoint, it's a wait and see. The image on the left is the forecasted temperatures 10 days from now in the upper-most level of the atmosphere.  So the North Pole holds the key later this month, and I'm not talking about Santa! If a piece of  that cold air breaks off and heads south, the pattern will change and we'll get into a prolonged cold and stormy pattern.

Until then, we can still get some snow. But it will come and go, just like it has over the last 6 weeks. Perhaps that makes winter a bit more tolerable for those of you wishing for summer!

I'll post an update on this later this week and again later in the month.