Last year, the winter was characterized by two big storms  - one in the fall and one in spring , but much of the time was quite mild

This year, we're expecting a much different winter season. El Nino, which hasn't been seen since the winter of 2009-2010, has returned and looks to play a role in our winter this year. That will lead to a more active southern jet stream, which means we'll see more storms rolling across the southern part of the country. As that happens, the polar jet will become involved at times, causing a storm to develop and move up the east coast.

What will play the biggest role in our winter will be the NAO. The NAO, when in a negative state, helps to feed cold air into the eastern part of the country and also tends to make storms move more slowly. Most recently, the negative nao slowed Hurricane Sandy and forced it to turn into the mid atlantic coast. When the NAO turns negative this winter, we'll be especially prone to winter storms.

With all of this in mind, here's a look at how we expect the winter to play out month-by month.

Near normal snowfall in December and slightly below average temps.

Near normal snowfall in January with slightly below average temps.

February will turn out to be the snowiest month, compared to average. Temperatures will continue to run colder than normal early, then moderating mid-to-late month.

In summary, the winter will have temperatures a little colder than average, and snowfall will be a bit above average after an active February. Overall, not too far from an "average" winter! And keep in mind, there WILL be a few thaws and mild days from time to time.